reliability estimator
Conformal Prediction Assessment: A Framework for Conditional Coverage Evaluation and Selection
Zhou, Zheng, Zhang, Xiangfei, Tao, Chongguang, Yang, Yuhong
Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing conditional validity is challenging, as standard stratification methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose Conformal Prediction Assessment (CPA), a framework that reframes the evaluation of conditional coverage as a supervised learning task by training a reliability estimator that predicts instance-level coverage probabilities. Building on this estimator, we introduce the Conditional Validity Index (CVI), which decomposes reliability into safety (undercoverage risk) and efficiency (overcoverage cost). We establish convergence rates for the reliability estimator and prove the consistency of CVI-based model selection. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that CPA effectively diagnoses local failure modes and that CC-Select, our CVI-based model selection algorithm, consistently identifies predictors with superior conditional coverage performance.
Robust Communicative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Active Defense
Yu, Lebin, Qiu, Yunbo, Yao, Quanming, Shen, Yuan, Zhang, Xudong, Wang, Jian
Communication in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has been proven to effectively promote cooperation among agents recently. Since communication in real-world scenarios is vulnerable to noises and adversarial attacks, it is crucial to develop robust communicative MARL technique. However, existing research in this domain has predominantly focused on passive defense strategies, where agents receive all messages equally, making it hard to balance performance and robustness. We propose an active defense strategy, where agents automatically reduce the impact of potentially harmful messages on the final decision. There are two challenges to implement this strategy, that are defining unreliable messages and adjusting the unreliable messages' impact on the final decision properly. To address them, we design an Active Defense Multi-Agent Communication framework (ADMAC), which estimates the reliability of received messages and adjusts their impact on the final decision accordingly with the help of a decomposable decision structure. The superiority of ADMAC over existing methods is validated by experiments in three communication-critical tasks under four types of attacks.